Multimillion-dollar regional climate change initiative to be launched in Barbados

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This image made available by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on December 17, 2015 shows warmer- or cooler-than-normal temperatures around the world for January through November 2015. If governments are serious about the global warming targets they adopted in Paris, scientists say they have two options: eliminating fossil fuels immediately or finding ways to undo their damage to the climate system in the future. The first is politically impossible — the world is still hooked on using oil, coal and natural gas — which leaves the option of a major clean-up of the atmosphere later this century.

A new partnership to help disaster-prone Caribbean countries mitigate the effects and adapt to climate change will be launched in Barbados on January 28.

The Caribbean Community (Caricom), Japan and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) will launch the US$15-million Japan-Caribbean Climate Change Partnership (J-CCCP) that will bring together policymakers, experts and…

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What Happens If Russia Loses in Syria?

It's worth considering a subject that's seldom discussed here, though it should be. What if Russia's intervention in Syria — its version of the American way of war (air power and more air power) — proves to be somewhere between quagmirish and disastrous? Dominic Tierney at the Atlantic gives the subject some thought. Here's the end of the resulting piece. TomDispatch

President Putin

“In other words, Putin’s war may very well fail. But if it does, will he make concessions and abandon his ally? If the Russian president acts rationally, he should cut his losses. Putin, however, may not act rationally. When I researched my book on military disaster, The Right Way to Lose a War, I was struck by how poorly governments tend to handle battlefield reversals. From the United States in Vietnam to the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, leaders often respond to defeat with disastrous decisions that only worsen their plight. Rather than coolly looking for a way out of the predicament, they rage against the dying of the light.”Part of the problem is what psychologists call “loss aversion.” Losing hurts twice as bad as winning feels good—whether in a tennis match or a war. The idea of accepting even a small loss can seem intolerable, and people are tempted to risk greater losses for a shot at the win. The gambler who drops 20 bucks in a casino doesn’t walk away; he doubles his bets. In a similar vein, the president who loses 1,000 soldiers in Vietnam doesn’t end the war; he sends half a million Americans into the mire.

Putin has repeatedly responded to the potential loss of client regimes with military force.

“It’s hard to imagine Putin accepting defeat. He has cultivated an image as the father of the Russian people, who is restoring the country as a world power. If Assad’s regime falls, Russia could lose its only military installation outside the former U.S.S.R.—the naval base in Tartus, Syria. Therefore, if the war effort collapses, Putin may want to salvage something from the wreckage, potentially moving the conflict into a dangerous new phase. He could intensify Russian air strikes or deploy “little green men”—as the Russian soldiers serving unofficially in eastern Ukraine were called. Once Russian troops start dying in Syria, all bets are off.”Putin, moreover, has repeatedly responded to the potential loss of client regimes with military force. In 2008, the Russian military intervened in Georgia to punish pro-Western Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili and protect the independence of the breakaway Georgian territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Six years later, in 2014, Putin aided Ukrainian rebels and annexed Crimea following the toppling of pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych. In late 2015, with Assad’s forces reeling, Putin once again intervened to stabilize a client regime.”And Putin has already raised the prospect of further military escalation, saying that Russia is using “far from everything we are capable of” in Syria and that “We also have other things as well and will use them if necessary.”

“What’s the solution? If Russia’s defeat could trigger hazardous escalation, this doesn’t mean a Russian victory is preferable. After all, if Assad somehow assumed a winning position, why would he negotiate a compromise peace that recognized the interests of all Syrian groups? Instead, the optimal opportunity for a peace deal may be a situation in which Putin believes a decisive triumph is not possible, but he can still save face by spinning the outcome as a success. In other words, he needs a story to tell the Russian people about the positive results of the mission. This narrative doesn’t need to be true, but it does need to havetruthiness, or a seeming plausibility. And so, to get Putin out of Syria, the United States might need to play along by avoiding boastful claims of a major Russian debacle. In 1989, after the Berlin Wall fell, U.S. President George H.W. Bush deliberately refused to declare the development a win—to avoid complicating the life of Soviet Premier Mikhail Gorbachev.

“Putin needs a victory speech. And Washington may have to help him write it.” More

 

Incoming Chair of CARICOM prioritises benefits for people in 2016

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Incoming Chairman of CARICOM, the Hon. Dean Barrow, Prime Minister of Belize Incoming Chairman of CARICOM, the Hon. Dean Barrow, Prime Minister of Belize

“People of the Caribbean Community, we have a lot to be proud of and a lot to look forward to. Let us strive to make 2016 one to remember as a landmark year for our integration movement.” – The Hon Dean Barrow, Prime Minister of Belize and Incoming Chairman of CARICOM

With the firm resolution to strengthen the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) to provide greater benefits for its peoples, the Hon. Dean Barrow, Prime Minister of Belize assumes the six-month chairmanship of the Community from 1 January 2016.

He succeeds the Rt. Hon. Freundel Stuart, Prime Minister of Barbados.

In a message to usher in the New Year, Prime Minister Barrow pointed out that there was a lot to be proud of and a lot to look forward to.

Our resolution is to continue to strengthen our integration…

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Historical representation of 5Cs at Paris Climate Change Talks (repost)

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The Caribbean Community Climate Change Center (CCCCC) attended the 21st Conference of the Parties held in Paris, France this week.

The team of delegates was led by the executive director of CCCCC, Dr. Kenrick Leslie. Deputy Director and Science Advisor of CCCCC, Carlos Fuller represented Belize at the convention.

The convention finished on Saturday night after overtime deliberations by the French Presidency of the COP, where they crafted an agreement compatible with all parties involved. One of the key interests of CCCCC is that the convention will be directed by scientific research.

CCCCC was instrumental to ensure that the Caribbean region was well represented at the convention and prepared to engage in negotiations regarding what climate change issues mean to the region. With assistance from various partners, the center formatted a Declaration on Climate Change which was adopted by the CARICOM Heads of Government and was the blueprint for the region’s position…

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Reframing the narrative on nuclear weapons: Insights & Findings Report

Reframing the narrative on nuclear weapons: Insights & Findings Report

This new publication represents 14 months of investigation into how future nuclear weapons policy can be more relevant to the concerns and security of the next generation. Our aim has been to explore this by engaging new perspectives within the next generation of policy shapers, those with ideas unstructured by Cold War experiences, but nevertheless motivated to take action to move beyond the legacies from past generations, focused on future decisions over global policy challenges. We used a variety of tools, including focus groups, systems mapping, and expert roundtable discussions utilising different frames of reference and disciplines for comparison.

We hope this report serves as a point of departure in developing innovative ideas to engage new people within the next generation of policy shapers in the interests of furthering nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament. We would like to thank the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation for their foresight in funding this project with the expressed purpose of stimulating new ways of thinking and working in this field.

Read the full report here